August consumer price inflation is due from the ONS on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 7:00am, ahead of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision on Thursday 17 September. This is a reading guide using the latest published July outturn. It is not a forecast of the August print.
Two official clocks now sit back to back for local cashflow planning. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is scheduled to release Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026 on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 7:00am. The Bank of England will publish the September Monetary Policy Summary and minutes on Thursday 17 September 2026 (Bank Rate decision due that day; Bank Rate currently 3.75%). The August CPI bulletin is not yet published. Nothing below invents that print.
The last verified snapshot: July 2026
The latest published ONS bulletin (released 19 August 2026) showed:
- CPI rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% in June.
- CPIH rose by 3.1%, up from 2.8%.
- On a monthly basis, both CPI and CPIH rose by 0.3% in July 2026.
- Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) was 2.6%, unchanged from June.
- CPI services eased to 3.4% from 3.6%; CPI goods rose to 2.2% from 1.7%.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation slowed to 1.3% from 1.7%, with prices little changed on the month.
- Housing and household services inflation rose to 4.1% from 2.7%, led especially by energy. ONS reported gas prices up 14.7% on the year in July (after the July Ofgem price-cap change) and electricity up 3.6%. Ofgem’s dual-fuel direct-debit example cited in the bulletin was an annual bill of £1,862, a rise of £221.
Those are July facts. They set the baseline against which Wednesday’s August release will be compared. They are not a prediction of August.
Which lines local owners should open first on Wednesday
When the August tables land, skip straight past social-media roundups and open the ONS main points and contribution charts. For firms across the borough and wider Essex, three blocks matter most.
1. Energy and housing services
July’s upward move was driven heavily by gas and electricity feeding housing and household services. Watch whether August’s annual rates for those items ease, hold or firm further. Commercial energy, night opening costs and workshop bills do not move one-for-one with the household basket, but the same wholesale and regulated-price story often shows up in supplier talks within weeks. That shapes how aggressive autumn menu and price-list reviews need to be.
2. Food
Food inflation at 1.3% in July was the lowest annual rate since September 2021 on the ONS series cited in that bulletin. Wednesday’s food line still matters for cafes, pubs, independent retailers and contract caterers. Check both the 12-month rate and the one-month change: they can move wholesale quotes differently from the headline alone.
3. Services (and core)
The Bank of England targets CPI at 2%. Services inflation and core CPI are the domestic-pressure gauges markets and the MPC watch most closely when energy is noisy. July’s CPI services rate of 3.4% and core CPI of 2.6% are the last published anchors. A meaningful move in those lines usually matters more for Thursday’s policy language than a one-off energy blip, though energy can still dominate the headline. Also note CPI versus CPIH: CPI is the policy target; CPIH includes owner-occupiers’ housing costs and can feel closer to household budgets.
How a print feeds Bank Rate decision week
Thursday’s MPC meeting is a decision day, not a full Monetary Policy Report round. Bank Rate stands at 3.75% after the July hold (meeting ending 29 July 2026; majority 6 to 3 to maintain Bank Rate, with three members preferring a rise to 4%). That vote is history, not a September forecast.
Published market commentary has generally treated a September hold at 3.75% as the base case, with later-meeting uncertainty amid energy-price volatility. Reuters reported on 14 September 2026 that Goldman Sachs, in line with consensus, expected an unchanged Bank Rate on 17 September, even as some houses revised later-year paths. Those are labelled market expectations, not Bank decisions.
For a local borrower or landlord, transmission is what counts: a hold leaves the official floor unchanged; overdrafts and many commercial loans still reprice off base rate plus margin; and gilt-market moves can change new fixed loans even when Bank Rate is static. Diary both releases. Re-price only against the live ONS bulletin and the Bank’s Thursday documents. Do not invent an August CPI rate, a September vote split, or a Colchester-specific inflation index.
Uncertainty flags
- August CPI is unpublished until 16 September 2026, 7:00am.
- First estimates can be revised.
- Geopolitical energy moves can change the contribution mix between months without rewriting the whole cost base overnight.
- National CPI is not a unit-cost ledger for any single Essex business.
Source notes
- ONS release calendar, Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026 (16 September 2026, 7:00am; not yet published): https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/consumerpriceinflationukaugust2026
- GOV.UK statistics announcement, Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/consumer-price-inflation-uk-august-2026
- ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: July 2026 (released 19 August 2026): https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2026
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2026 and 2027 (Bank Rate 3.75%; next due 17 September 2026): https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, July 2026 (meeting ending 29 July 2026): https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026
- Reuters, Citigroup and Goldman forecasts / September hold expectation (14 September 2026): https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-sees-boe-rate-hike-november-amid-inflation-concerns-2026-09-14/
